Volatility and disruption kills value. Learn about asset allocation, risk reduction and diversification optimization in the age of the post 2009 Global Financial Crisis and now the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic. Make effective investments to protect, grow, and preserve capital.
Recovery or Sucker's Rally?
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We're looking for ideas on whether the recent runup in the markets is a true, solid recovery or just a headfake. Email us at our Email, submit a comment, or follow us on Twitter.
Figure 1 (click to enlarge) The mutual fund industry consists of a complex web of connections, many to many relationships, wherein information is exchanged for value. Dissecting each class of member in this diagram, you can imagine what type of information trades for what types of value. Value is created at the source, where mutual funds are generated and managed. Better fund cosntruction results in better value. Skilled fund managers tend to attract more assets under management (AUM). Even unskilled fund managers can too, if they have really good marketing, and good distribution via the channels. Skilled and unskilled investors gain access to that value thru a variety of channels, and are willing to pay management fees for that value. Some call this value "alpha", that is, the amount of return gained above what the market would otherwise bear. We can't forget risk, so investors are also 'buying' a certain degree of mitigation of risk which is another form of v...
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Risk is difficult to measure and to manage. ETFs and indexes exist that provide performance averages. Mutual funds suffer from overhead and management costs, loads and redemption fees. When investors are paying fund managers to reduce risk, minimize volatility and maximize returns, and they realize an industry average, index (which has no management), or T-Bill has bettered their fund, they should be upset. They have experienced an opportunity loss while taking on excessive risk, and while paying people to manage that risk. We could use a backward looking lense to hopefully get a projection of what future performance or risk-adjusted returns might be. But, people cannot make informed decisions because they cannot truly know past risk, present risk, and more importantly future risk. As the economy changes and as individual assets within a portfolio change, daily, one must have a means of contemplating different asset allocations based on reality and make necessary adjustments to maximiz...
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